I expect to get questions about global warming from the audience at this afternoon’s “Salute to Ben Bova” at the dome of the Figge Conservatory at the Philharmonic Center for the Arts.
Despite overwhelming evidence, many people just refuse to accept the idea that the Earth’s climate is warming. They especially don’t want to believe that human actions are playing a part in the rising temperatures.
Three weeks ago this newspaper ran a guest commentary headlined “Facts don’t support global warming.” The “facts” presented in the piece were mainly misrepresentations, half-truths and outright errors.
For example: “For most of the past 10,000 years temperatures have been 1.0 to 3.0 degrees Celsius warmer than they are today.”
So what? Who cares what the global temperatures were 5,000 or 6,000 years ago, when there were fewer than 100 million human beings spread across the face of the Earth? We’re worried about now, today, with 6 billion people crowding our world, a lot of them on the edge of famine.
Measurements show that global temperatures have risen about 0.74 degree Celsius over the past century, and are rising at 0.13 degree Celsius every 10 years. Seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001, and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1995.
It doesn’t matter that temperatures might have been warmer 10,000 years ago. There weren’t 6 billion human beings on Earth then. Loss of cropland or coastal flooding didn’t bother many people — although one flood had enough of an impact to make it into the Book of Genesis and other ancient texts.
“If ‘global’ warming is causing receding polar ice,” asked the guest commentator, “then why is Antarctic sea ice setting growth records?”
Antarctic sea ice is growing because the glaciers that feed the sea ice are moving faster than ever recorded. They are moving faster because they are melting faster, and the melt water lubricates their slide down to the sea. Recently, chunks of ice the size of Rhode Island have broken off the ice shelves in Antarctica.
And satellite photos show that the Arctic Ocean became so free of ice last summer that ordinary ships could sail across it — the Northwest Passage across the top of North America connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Intrepid explorers such as Francis Drake and James Cook sought that passage and were turned back by thick ice. That waterway was open last summer.
In an earlier column I expressed a fear that the gradual warming trend we are witnessing today might reach a tipping point, where global temperatures shoot upward so rapidly that we won’t have time to do much to protect ourselves from the drastic changes in climate.
Such sudden climate shifts have happened in the past, geological studies reveal. It may happen again, with sea levels rising to inundate coastal cities, monster storms ravaging coastlands and changes in rainfall patterns ruining existing farmlands. Or it might not happen. We simply do not know enough, as yet, to make a firm prediction.
But wise generals prepare their forces for the worst that the enemy can do, not merely for what they guess the enemy might do. In the face of existing climate change, and the possibility of more and worse to come, is it wise for us to pretend that nothing’s wrong?
The guest commentator noted that a survey of 500 climate scientists found that fewer than half of them believed that “climate change … will occur so suddenly that a lack of preparation would result in devastation of some areas of the world.”
Does being a climate scientist make you an expert in disaster relief? And since when does science make decisions based on nose counts?
Back in the 1930s, Albert Einstein’s concept of relativity was branded by the Nazi government of Germany as “Jewish physics.” The Nazis encouraged a group of scientists to produce a book titled “One Hundred Scientists Against Einstein.”
Einstein’s response was that physics isn’t a popularity contest, and all it would take to disprove his work was one scientist with an experiment that proves relativity is wrong. It’s been more than a century since Einstein published his work. Thousands of experiments have been performed. None of them have disproved relativity.
Actually, I hope the deniers are right. But I wouldn’t stake our future on it.
As I’ve said before, much of the global-warming problem is the politicization of the concept. Some people cannot face the thought that the world’s climate is changing. They especially loathe the idea that human actions are a part of the problem, perhaps a major part.
But if human activities are contributing to global warming, then we can make changes that could alleviate the problem. If we cut down on our use of fossil fuels, we could make the environment cleaner and reduce our dependence on imported oil. This could benefit our economy and change international politics.
If we use our ingenuity and intelligence to develop new, clean energy technologies, this too could improve our environment, our economy and our international standing.
It’s difficult to overcome inertia. As Sir Isaac Newton correctly asserted, an object at rest tends to stay at rest — unless an outside force is applied to it. Some people see global warming as a lie foisted upon us by unscrupulous politicians and scientists. I can’t vouch for the politicians, but I do not believe that scientists are lying to us.
We have the tools to move our society away from fossil fuels. Nuclear power plants, windmills, hydrogen fuel, solar energy — we can replace today’s fossil-fuel-burning systems with better technology.
It won’t be done overnight, or even in a decade. But let’s begin. Instead of denying the obvious and throwing up specious arguments to support such denials, let’s take positive steps to make the world a better place.
Naples resident Ben Bova is the author of 119 published books, with several more in the pipeline. Bova’s Web site address is www.benbova.com.
No comments:
Post a Comment